Think it’s a complete waste of resources, time and energy to perform a Monte Carlo Risk Analysis on your project? You might be right…
In today’s scheduling world, we sometimes encounter schedulers who know how to run the software, but do not know the fundamentals of project planning and network logic. Taking the same approach with risk simulation will yield results that will be worse than useless – they will be misleading. One of my early mentors taught me that the only thing worse than no data was bad data, and he was right!
If you are like most project managers and executives, you don’t have a deep understanding of the statistical, the rational and the mathematics behind the simulation. And why would you? It is several standard deviations from the norm for the average professional to understand such things in depth. The PMBOK has limited information on simulation, and simulation is counter-intuitive. But if this is the case, you don’t know what you’re missing.
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A well-built model will generate quality information and give you more information about the probable time and cost components for your project prior to execution – if properly simulated. But it takes an in-depth understanding of the statistical method and real world experience to build an accurate model, then interpret the results of a simulation.
Learning to perform a well built, executed and interpreted project schedule and cost simulation is a worthy and beneficial endeavor.